Posted by
on Sunday, March 04, 2007 10:41:08 AM
The Telegraph reports today on Iran's plans against us should we attack them, and target their nuclear facilities:
(HT: Captain Ed)
Iran has trained secret networks of agents across the Gulf states to attack Western interests and incite civil unrest in the event of a military strike against its nuclear programme, a former Iranian diplomat has told The Sunday Telegraph.
Spies working as teachers, doctors and nurses at Iranian-owned schools and hospitals have formed sleeper cells ready to be "unleashed" at the first sign of any serious threat to Teheran, it is claimed.
Trained by Iranian intelligence services, they are also said to be recruiting fellow Shias in the region, whose communities have traditionally been marginalised by the Gulf's ruling Sunni Arab clans.
Were America or Israel to attack Iran, such cells would be instructed to foment long-dormant sectarian grievances and attack the ex-tensive American and European business interests in wealthy states such as Dubai and Saudi Arabia. Such a scenario would bring chaos to the Gulf, one of the few areas of the Middle East that remains prosperous and has largely pro-Western governments.
The claims have been made by Adel Assadinia, a former career diplomat who was Iran's consul-general in Dubai and an adviser to the Iranian foreign ministry. They came as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, made a formal visit to Saudi Arabia yesterday in what was widely seen as an attempt to defuse growing Sunni-Shia tensions in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of backing Shia death squads killing Sunnis in Iraq, and of backing the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militia in its efforts to bring down the government in Beirut. Meanwhile, a US naval build-up has continued in the Gulf waters south of Iran, a move intended to show Washington's readiness to strike against Teheran's nuclear installations for defying UN orders to cease uranium enrichment.
Mr Assadinia, who fled Iran after whistle-blowing on corruption among the country's all-powerful theocrats, said: "The Iranian government believes that to survive it needs permanent bases throughout the Middle East. Anybody who contemplates threatening or invading Iran will have those cells unleashed against them."
Mr Assadinia, 50, served for two years at the Iranian consulate in Dubai, which he says was also used as a conduit for illicit funding of Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Shia militant group that waged a six-week war with Israel last summer.
Iranian foreign ministry agents would regularly pass through with suitcases containing up to £11 million, using diplomatic baggage channels to bypass customs scrutiny.
"The amounts varied, but it would come through on average twice a month," he said. "I would see it sometimes. As far as I know, that money always went to Hezbollah."
His consulate, he said, was a hub for regional intelligence operations because of the huge number of Iranians working in Dubai, which is the main trade port for the Middle East. Its skyscrapers and industrial estates are home to 4,000 Iranian businesses, providing easy cover for espionage.
Other intelligence activities included running nightclubs and prostitution rings, where carousing officials and diplomats could be lured into "honey trap" blackmail operations, and organising Iranian expatriates - there are an estimated 500,000 in the Gulf - to act as double agents.
Some might pooh-pooh this off as just another nutter story by the MSM, trying to add more fuel to a fire already growing in intensity and heat. Then, there are people like me that take what is said seriously, with a grain of salt. The guy they're talking to is a former consul, and a former spook. So, the question is how's the veracity of his story? Can it be trusted. Spy vs. spy, folks, neither side can really be trusted to tell the truth. Does Iran really have agents in the Gulf states? Why not? Saudi Arabia is accusing them of running operations there, and we know of their proclivities in Syria and Lebanon. (BTW, a note here so there's no confusion like on Capt. Ed's site--This story is not referencing the Gulf states in the US, but rather the Persian Gulf nations.)
But let's take a look at what might happen in a confrontation with us. Iran's air war would be over in about two days. The ground offensive would be done in about the same amount of time Iraq was kicked out of Kuwait in '91. (I'd hope we learned our lesson from 2003 not to rush forward, but rather present overwhelming force against the enemy.) Of course, I'd doubt we would put a single boot on the gound for the sheer fact that the Iranians should really topple their own government. We'll take out the nuclear facilities, command and control, Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard barracks, and leadership targets. Let the Iranians handle the rest with the US and coalition forces serving in a support capacity.
The reason for a lack of boots on the ground is simple: The backbone of Iran's military revolves around Hezbollah. For those keeping record, Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, and not one to be taken lightly as their numbers in Iran supposedly are over 40,000. That's not an "insurgency." That's a bloody army (emphasis on the "bloody" part). The IRG won't last long against a constant pounding from US airstrikes.
But the point of the story, the fact they do have sleeper cells throughout the Gulf region, is a worrisome one. The Iranians will strike at any Gulf state associated with the US in retaliation for a strike carried out by US forces. And I'm sure they have them in Israel, too, just in case Israel gets a wild hair up it's backside to go after them. If anyone still doubts Iran's intentions in the region, then you need to have your head examined. Ahamdinejad is forcing the region closer to a confrontation conflagration. That's what you get when you put a religious zealot in power that is dead set on putting in motion events surrounding End Times. Just because he hasn't spoken about the 12th Imam in a couple months doesn't mean he's flip-flopped like John McCain. He's keeping it close to the vest, and probably because the mullahs told him to knock it off.
But he still believes that he will usher in the age of the 12th Imam. He also believes he can remove Israel from the face of the planet. We'll see, but I'm not holding my breath on those boasts. Though I am interested to know what his supposed "big announcement" is supposed to be that's should be coming out next month. Let's just hope that while we have dithered and dawdled--wasting out time with negotiations--that his big surprise isn't a working nuclear wepon. In that case, all bets are off, and the president had better be prepared to act decisively.
Publius II