Posted by
on Wednesday, December 27, 2006 9:24:23 AM
Somalia and Ethiopia have been at war now for almost a week. Ethiopia is kicking the ever-living snot out of the Islamicists to the point where they were able to rout the Somalis in the opening days. And that rout, apparently, is still going on. Now, it seems that the tide has significantly shifted as pro-government troops, backed by Ethiopian forces, are moving on Mogadishu, in what I could only classify as Islam's Waterloo in Africa:Somalia’s pro-government troops captured a key southern town from their Islamist rivals on Wednesday.
Resident Mahamud Ismail said from the town of Jowhar, 90 kilometres north of the Islamist-held capital, "The government has taken over Jowhar. I can see government troops on top of armoured vehicles chasing Islamists troops ... heading toward Mogadishu."
Witnesses said residents left their houses to cheer pro-government troops, backed by Ethiopian tanks, which pursued the Islamists as sporadic gunfire echoed in the air.
The retreating Islamists appeared to be heeding a call by their senior leader Shaikh Sharif Ahmed for forces to gather in Mogadishu to prepare for a long war against old foe Ethiopia.
Yesterday, there was a call that went up from the Islamicists to the UN to intervene and lay down a cease-fire. Personally, if I were Ethiopia, and a cease-fire was instituted, I wouldn't abide by it. I'd keep right on trucking until the Islamicists were dead, or routed out of the country completely. But, See-Dubya over at Hot Air notes that John Bolton's interim replacement is sounding a lot like a diplomat right now. Now, we all know that their job is to promote peace and dialogue, and sometimes they have to sound like the weenies they are. However, See-Dubya makes another note about Johnathan Stevenson, a graduate of the Naval War College, who had this to say:
Thus far, the major powers have tacitly allowed Ethiopia and Eritrea to keep assets deployed in Somalia while pressuring both to refrain from escalating to all-out war. But these weak constraints cannot produce operational equilibrium between the TFG and the Islamic Courts Union for long enough to allow effective major-power attention to gravitate to Somalia before war arises.
Absent an unattainably strong peace-enforcement contingent, the only solution would appear to be robust diplomacy aimed at stabilizing the Somali situation by a power-sharing arrangement between the TFG and the Islamic Courts.
Whoa. Hold on there, Tex. Did he just say "power-sharing?" Mr. Stevenson is a professor of strategic studies, and with the above statement, you'd have to wonder where he's coming from. It sure sounds a lot like a UN diplomat rather than a professor teaching young men about warfare. And why in God's name would he promote a power-sharing plan? The Islamicists seized power in Somalia; sometimes by force, other times through negotiation. But they did seize it, nonetheless. There should be no "power-sharing" idea. The Ethiopians were there, at the behest of the UIC, as a peacekeeping force after the civil war there in February.
Why is it that when Islamicists rise to power, threaten other nations, then said nation kicks their backside, everyone wants to feel sorry for them rather than condemning them? It seems to me that if you start something, you should be finishing it, not calling on the literal "big brother" to come and break it up. If the UN steps in on this, and Ethiopia agress to a cease-fire, they're going to be right back at it in a couple of months. The Islamicists will pull back, lick their wounds, rearm, and potentially with more dangerous and destructive weapons, and go right back after Ethiopian forces there again.
No, I say let them fight it out. Ethiopia is on the verge of winning this little skirmish. I say let them do it.
Publius II