Posted by
on Thursday, February 22, 2007 4:38:28 PM
The Race 4 2008 blog has new numbers up from Iowa and California polls up. First, I will touch on the Dem side:
PRESIDENT - IOWA - DEM PRIMARY
John Edwards 24%
Hillary 18%
Barack Obama 18%
PRESIDENT - CALIFORNIA - DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 34%
Barack Obama 24%
John Edwards 16%
Do not criticize the fact that I have only listed three candidates. In Iowa, Tom Vilsack is the only other candidate in double digits (he pulled in 14% behind Hillary and Obama), and no one else is in double digits in California. What I see above is that the nomination on the Democrat side is going to come down to Hillary or Obama. They are too close to each other, and they are feeding off of each other. Edwards, as far as we are concerned is a non-issue. He is an "also ran," and has little chance of taking the nomination. Remember, the modern Democrats do not nominate losers from the past. They did not do it in 2004 with Lieberman, and they will not do it in 2008 with Edwards.
Now, for the GOP numbers:
PRESIDENT - IOWA - GOP PRIMARY
Rudy Giuliani 29%
John McCain 22%
Newt Gingrich 11%
Mitt Romney 9%
PRESIDENT - CALIFORNIA - GOP PRIMARY
Rudy Giulaini 41%
John McCain 17%
Mitt Romney 10%
I included Governor Romney in the Iowa polls because he is one of the three main contenders for the GOP nomination. Former Speaker Gingrich was a surprise to see in the Iowa straw poll, and mostly due to the fact that he has not stated he is running yet. But look at those numbers in California. I guess Senator McCain is not as popular with those in California as he thought he might be. Rudy is trouncing the snot out of him. It is much closer between the two in Iowa, and likely due to the social conservatives there. But the point is Rudy IS appealing to a vast array of people on the conservative side. Also, for those who have been asking questions regarding Rudy's stance on immigration reform, I refer to this story from the New York Sun today about Rudy's trip to South Carolina yesterday. The key 'graph:
On immigration, Mr. Giuliani said America had to do more to enforce its borders, including building both a physical and "technological" fence, a position that drew applause from the crowd.
He is the first candidate we are aware of to advocate the physical fence. No other candidate (aside from possibly Hunter, Tancredo, and Gingrich--again, he is not officially in the race) to ennunciate that stance. No disrespect to Messrs. Hunter and Tancredo, but they are polling badly early on. Much of this comes from a lack of recognition, and being primarily one-issue candidates. Holding firm on that one issue is good, but one issue does not make a platform.
Neither Mitt Romney or John McCain has emphasized the need for the fence. In fact, a post from Allah @ Hot-Air brings us up to speed on the Kennedy/McCain immigration bill:
Senators and lobbyists are putting the final touches on a comprehensive immigration-reform bill that includes an easier citizenship path for illegal aliens and weaker enforcement provisions than were in the highly criticized legislation that the Senate approved last year…
Mr. Kennedy drafted this year’s bill with help from Sen. John McCain, Arizona Republican, and outside lobbyists. Mr. McCain and the outside groups share Mr. Kennedy’s support for increased immigration and leniency for illegals already in the country…
The one Republican who all agree has been part of the negotiations from the start is Mr. McCain, who is running for his party’s presidential nomination. This worries Republicans who say that Mr. McCain is the last Republican they want representing their interests in negotiations with Mr. Kennedy over immigration legislation.
If this bill goes through, John McCain can kiss his chances at the GOP nomination good-bye. And if Rudy is smart, he will verbally crucify John McCain over his stance on immigration reform. Next to national security, immigration reform is among the top issues that voters want to hear about; it is an issue that goes hand-in-hand with national security.
Marcie