Posted by
on Friday, March 09, 2007 8:49:18 AM
We knew this was coming. With so many already behind him by a significant amount, Rudy Giuliani has a target on his back, and he is about to endure a crucible:
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has entered the presidential race with a head of steam thanks to a remarkably positive public image among most Americans due to his performance in the wake of Sept. 11.
But his opponents say Giuliani will eventually be weighed down as GOP voters take a more comprehensive look at his record and character – and operatives for rival campaigns are making plans to give Giuliani a proper introduction to rough-and-tumble national politics
Soon, Giuliani opponents say, it will be Rudy’s turn. ...
... That “traditional process,” of course, includes the sort of deep probing and tough scrutiny that even the aggressive New York City press corps can’t match. With Giuliani, opponents believe they have ample fodder to feed to the ever-hungry media beast – for starters, three marriages and a moderate record on social issues that would seem to be anathema to conservative GOP primary voters.
Still, Giuliani’s GOP rivals are treading lightly so far and are hesitant to attack him on the record – a sign of the surprising power Giuliani has shown in the campaign’s early months.
One notable exception took place last week, when former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney said of the former mayor in an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network: “He is pro-choice, he is pro-gay marriage, and anti-gun. That's a tough combination in a Republican primary." ...
... But if Giuliani’s impressive poll numbers continue, opponents will undoubtedly zero in on his potential vulnerabilities: a soap opera of a personal life, questionable business ties, a hard-charging governing style that did not suffer critics lightly and apostasy on core conservative orthodoxy.
“When you’re running for president, there is always a ‘but,’” noted a Romney adviser. “When you start looking to Rudy’s ‘but’s,’” -- issues, family life, former clients – “there’s lots of buts.” ...
... As first reported by the New York Times last weekend, Giuliani has had strained relations with his two children since a very public and very messy divorce from their mother, Donna Hanover, in 2000. The former mayor’s son, Andrew, talked to the Times and then ABC News, making painfully apparent that he would have nothing to do with his father’s campaign. Such stories remind, or inform, voters of the other side of Giuliani. But when do they start to have an impact on his numbers?
Giuliani’s descent, said an adviser to a rival GOP campaign, will begin when “he ceases to be a celebrity and starts to be more of a regular candidate.”
A regular candidate, that is, with a trove of controversial moves from his time as mayor and U.S. Attorney waiting to be re-aired.
It’s “hard to make the argument that he was a bad mayor or bad prosecutor,” the rival campaign source acknowledged, but there remains ample information to mine from his years as mayor, this person hinted. ...
... Frank Donatelli, a veteran Republican supporting McCain but not playing an active role in his campaign, likened the early relationship between Giuliani and GOP primary voters to the first torrid days of an affair where flaws are minimized or ignored.
“When you’re dating somebody, you see the best qualities in them. And let’s face it, Rudy’s a very attractive fellow.”
Still, Donatelli sees a “tough road” for Hizzoner and points to a recent Politico report about the left-leaning judges Giuliani appointed as New York mayor as indicative of the sort of pot holes that lay ahead.
“Judicial appointees really will resonate with the base,” said Donatelli, a Reaganite and former director of Young Americans for Freedom. “Conservatives believe that the whole spectrum of social issues begins with judges. If you have a demonstrably poor record there, it’s tough to overcome.” ...
... Giuliani adviser Tony Carbonetti responded to the notion that his boss can’t win over the party base by arguing that the GOP is a more diverse lot than some in the press think.
“The New York reporter mentality,” Carbonetti said, is to think “very little of the Republican primary voter.”
“What we’re seeing is that [GOP voters] are looking for a larger set of attributes. They want the picture as a whole.” Carbonetti said Giuliani will “talk to everybody” in the party and address issues like abortion, gay rights and guns as they arise, but that “it all comes down to what people want from their elected officials.”
“If its leadership, competent governance and somebody you know is going to wake up every day thinking about how he can do a better job, Rudy’s your guy.”
I bring this up because we knew this was about to happen. Romney and McCain have both come out swinging over the last week or so. Romney's comment on Rudy's pro-gay marriage stance was unfounded; a point that was quickly and quietly dismised by people in his camp. If you go on the attack, make sure your information is correct. Rudy has stated in two separate interviews (a point we made in our most recent column) that he is in favor of keeping marriage betweena man and a woman, and he has clearly opined that he is in favor of civil unions. That is a significant difference from "pro-gay marriage."
While many voters are still unaware of Rudy's personal life, a good deal of conservatives are flocking to his banner. Despite the carpings of social conservatives we have engaged in chatrooms and message forums that "it will be a cold day in Hell before I vote for someone who is pro-gun control," or "pro-choice," or "someone who is divorced," etc., a great many social conservatives are overlooking those issues. His record in New York City of restoring law and order, cutting taxes, reforming the city's welfare system, etc., will appeal to a host of people. In a Washington Times piece yesterday written by Stephan Dinan, Jim Nussle (Giuliani's campaign manager) said that he is appealing to Rpoublicans, Democrats and independents. He even admitted that Democrats that like Rudy have taken to calling themselves "Rudycrats."
A strong case is being made by pundits, like this one from Daniel Casse that Rudy Giuliani's appeal right now is very similar to Ronald Reagan's. People love The Gipper, and not just for his conservatism. His leadership was key to him winning not once, but twice, and in record-setting landslides. Could Rudy pull off such a feat? Michael Barone thinks so, as the numbers stand right now, but elections are long on time, and if mistakes are made, time could be a luxury that candidates find they lack when trying to clean up from gaffes. The question that is on many minds is can he hold out.
We believe he can. We believe he can run an effective campaign. We also have faith that when asked about the issues his opponents will raise, he will be forthcoming. But in the end, this time around, the presidential race will be based on a singular issue: National security. Rudy has the leadership qualities, and take-no-nonsense style that may just appeal to voters across the country. We will simply have to wait and see. One thing is certain though, and McCain and Romney had best take this to heart. Rudy is not the only one here with a certain degree of "dirty laundry." Romney did some controversial things as governor of Massachusetts that a lot of conservatives will not like. McCain, likewise, has similar problems with the conservative base in that they do not trust him. So before these two come out of their respective glass houses to throw rocks at Rudy's, they had better be darn sure they have the goods on him, or it is going to backfire badly.
Marcie