Posted by
on Thursday, December 21, 2006 2:34:20 PM
First, let me welcome new readers to our new site. Hopefully this will be the last time we'll have to do this with TownHall. Our previous two endeavors met with technical disater. (Ones that neither we nor the guys at TownHall can explain.) So, we're hoping this one stays up. I'll be here today, and through the end of the year. My wife, and our partner Sabrina, will be handling things from our old site, The Asylum until 1 January when they'll join me here. (That site will remain up, just in case this one goes down. Mark them both in your favorites.)
Now, onto business. Moqtada al-Sadr is seriously considering his options at this point. As Captain Ed points out he is considering a cease-fire as more US troops will be sent into Iraq, and al-Sistani working to remove al-Maliki from power. From ABC News:
Radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who heads a militia feared by Iraq's Sunnis, is considering a one-month unilateral cease-fire and may push his followers to rejoin the political process after a three-week boycott, officials close to him said.
The issue is expected to come up at a meeting Thursday in the holy city of Najaf between al-Sadr and a delegation representing the seven Shiite groups that form the largest bloc in Iraq's parliament, the Shiite officials said on condition of anonymity because of the secrecy of the talks.
Half the delegates traveled to Najaf on Wednesday night, and were gathered Thursday morning at the home of the country's top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, an official in al-Sistani's office said on condition of anonymity because of political sensitivities. The others were traveling to Najaf on Thursday, he said.
Al-Sadr's not an idiot. He's been playing these cat-and-mouse games for the better part of three years, and he always manages to stay one step ahead of the colaition. Just when we think he's worn out his welcome, and there's a chance we can finally be rid of him, he pulls an end run on us, and sidles on up to another Iraqi politician. His popularity among the Iraqi shi'ites is a problem that we can't seem to work around. We can't risk killing him or arresting him unless we'd like to see the violence get even nastioer over there, especially towards our troops.
his power within the government is one that can't be denied, and it is proving to be a bigger thorn in our side that we believed. We know the guy's a problem, but we can't seem to deal with him, or his militias. That is what we need to do, though. The cease-fire isn't enough. Those meeting with him need to demand he disband his militias. And it should be made clear to him that if he doesn't, the Iraqi military--with reinforcements from the coalition--will.
Of course, the bigger problem when it comes to al-Sadr are his ties to Iran, who wants anything but a free and democratic Iraq. His army has been supplied by Iran, trained by Syrian Hezbollah, and have instigated a great deal of secatrian violence in Iraq. Al-Sadr has accomplished what al-Zarqawi thought he could with the bombing of the Al-Askari mosque; he's ignited Shi'a against Sunni, and the results have been bloody.
But this delegation that is heading out to see him have a plan for a unified government, and they want his to end his violent ways. They want him to stand down, and help them. Now, I call that a pipe dream, on their part, but I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on one condition.
If he doesn't play ball this time around, he's gone. They step aside and let us deal with him. They can explain it to the people that they stand for a unified Iraq--one that will abide by their enacted constitution and elected government--and that he's the overall problem that their facing in that respect. If Iraq truly wants to stand on it's own, al-Sadr will either help them in that regard, or he'll be history.
And as long as he is there causing strife, and inciting violence, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will continue to interfere in Iraq's business. Ridding Iraq of al-Sadr and his militias will send a clear message to Iran that their influence in Iraq isn't wanted. As we have seen, some elements in Iraq have been absolutely opposed to the ISG report, which includes a call to speak with both Iran and Syria. Many in Iraq are opposed to this idea because they realize what both want for their nation, and it isn't freedom.
The Iraqis have to come to terms with the fact that if he does commit to a cease-fire, then breaks his word later, that he shares the same ideas that Assad in Syria and Ahmadinejad in Iran have. The prospect of being a free and independent nation is constantly under threat if they keep letting al-Sadr slither away.
Publius II